Wednesday March 10th 2010, 06:19PM
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MBS CLOSE: What Can Today Tell Us About Tomorrow? |
Posted To: MBS Commentary This is always the question right? I mean, after all, we already know what is available on our rate sheets at the moment, but the most valuable question always asks for tomorrow's MBS prices today. Forgetting for a moment that you'll usually LOSE more money thinking that way than you'll make, let's suspend GUTFLOP and see if we have any hints at tomorrow's action according to today's events. First, the fundamental arguments... What do we know? 10yr auction built up a decent concession going in and stopped pretty much on the screws (meaning that rates went up ahead of the auction, then we saw strong demand at those rates) Strong demand AT THOSE RATES is evidenced by the relatively high "offers accepted at high" metric from the auction, meaning that most of the...(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Rise Ahead of Treasury Auction. Fail to Recover Afterward |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch Much like Monday, yesterday was a data-less day in the marketplace, leaving me at a loss for words and new guidance. Mortgage-backed securities prices did managed to move higher following a very strong 3 year Treasury debt auction, unfortunately MBS price appreciations were not strong enough to warrant reprices for the better and lenders left mortgage rates unchanged on the day. The economic calendar picked up today, but not much. This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association released their Weekly Loan Applications Index. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase...(read more)
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MBS AFTERNOON: Mortgages Playing Follow the Leader with Benchmarks |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Heading into the 5pm "what a slow day in the mortgage market" marking period... The FN 4.0 is -0-03 at 98-01 yielding 4.189% and the FN 4.5 is flat on the day at 101 the rock yielding 4.39%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.33%. The CC yield is 61bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 58.6 basis points over the 10 yr swap rate. Static current coupon yield spread valuations are TIGHTER AGAIN! Holy relentless yield spread tightening! LOOK HOW SIDEWAYS FN 4.5 PRICES WERE TODAY! The MBS NINJA shares his thoughts on the recent stability of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons in the face of rising benchmark yields: Mortgages, trading in the secondary market (soon to filter back to the primary and rate sensitive one), are tightening daily as more money is put to work along...(read more)
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FICO: Americans More Likely to Default on Mortgages than Credit Cards |
Posted To: MND NewsWire American consumers are now defaulting on their mortgages in even greater numbers than they are walking away from credit card debt. According to FICO's® Score Trends Service, this is a phenomenon that is historically unique. FICO said the mortgage default risk for consumers with high FICO scores now exceeds their credit card default risk, even though most credit cards are unsecured credit and mortgages are secured by real estate. There is a parallel rise in mortgage delinquencies for these high scoring consumers. The company said that their analysis of trends in FICO scoring shows that recent repayment behavior has shifted significantly from what has historically been expected. In 2005 bankcard accounts were more than 3 times more likely to become seriously delinquent, that is 90+ days...(read more)
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MBS LUNCH: 10 Year Treasury Auction Results and Reactions |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 10 year auction has impressive demand, but at higher rates. 3.45 Bid To Cover, but 3.735 % high yield with 70.94% of the bids at high yield MBS and Treasuries both slightly better on the announcement 4.5's are now down only 2 ticks on the day at 100-29 and 10yr yields are back down to 3.72+ from 3.74+ Here is a breakdown of the auction results: 9-YR 11-MO NOTES YIELDS High 3.735 pct Median 3.700 pct Low 3.636 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.090493 Accepted at high 70.94 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 3.45 AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 21,000,013,800 Total public bids tendered 72,466,493,000 Competitive bids accepted 20,829,510,800 Noncompetitive bids accepted 70,503,000 Fed add-ons 248,452,700 Primary Dealer Tendered 49,661,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 9,857,410,000 Primary...(read more)
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Loan Demand Stagnates. Only One Bright Spot in the Production Slowdown |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2010. The survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, such a trend implies consumers are seeking out lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items or to pay down other debt. From the release: The Market Composite Index, a measure of...(read more)
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MBS MORNING: Losing Ground As Benchmarks Back Up |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 4.5 MBS down 6 ticks to 100-26 10yr Tsy about 5bps higher at 3.743 (vs. 5pm yesterday) Wholesale Trade Improves from -.8% to -.2%, but misses expectation of +.2%, no one cares Pre-Auction Concession + range dynamics weigh on 10's, MBS follow The movements in bonds this AM tells us just how focused the market is on the upcoming auction. Granted, the econ data earlier today isn't exactly "top shelf" (or even middle shelf for that matter), but without a microscope, it's hard to tell if it was even traded. The "room to run" that AQ discussed this AM in conjunction with the standard pre-auction concession is dominating the movements in the benchmark, which itself, is forcing MBS prices lower. Somewhere between an eighth and a quarter of a point has left the YSP building...(read more)
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Underwriters: Loan Quality Still in Need of Improvement; Interesting FICO Score Data; Will the Fed sell their MBS Holdings? |
Posted To: Pipeline Press At the last company Christmas party, loan agents lined up on one side of the room and the underwriters on the other side. The loan agents throw fire cracker at the underwriters...and the underwriters lit them and threw them back. A long-time underwriter wrote to me and opined, "Consumers always want more than what they can afford and we gave them exactly what they wanted for the last 10 years (without any prudent financial advice). I actually like the guideline changes and feel it is necessary to eradicate some of the lackadaisicalness that I hear in some underwriter's voices. Manufacturing quality is still a problem for the Agencies, and originating mortgage companies are still closing loans that are not 100% purchasable by the aggregators upon delivery. Fannie and Freddie have technology...(read more)
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MBS OPEN: Rates Ticking Higher Just Because They Can |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. I've had some great coaches in my lifetime...none better than my high school/juniors hockey skipper. Many of the messages he bestowed upon me have carried over from the locker room into my professional life. One of my favorites is the K.I.S.S principle. KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID This is incredibly relevant to the current market environment. The econ calendar isn't providing much meaningful guidance at the moment. Stocks are still showing an unwavering inclination to do what they want, when then want. Politicians are counting votes, leaving some of the most important reform debates of our era at the mercy of party lines. Fiscal affairs abroad are falling victim to heavy scrutiny AND speculation. Overall, this doesn't paint a very clear BIG PICTURE perspective. Well actually...(read more)
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The Day Ahead: Inventories, Budget Statement, Treasury Auction |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Investors this morning await the first real data to be released this week. But wholesale trade inventories isn’t a major market mover, nor is the afternoon’s budget statement, so it could be a quiet day if investors prefer to postpone trading until retail sales figures hit the headlines on Friday. One hour before the opening bell, the market is pretty flat. Dow futures are down 1 point at 10,563 and futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.00 points to 1,140.50 Meantime, WTI crude oil is up 31 cents to $81.80 per barrel, and Spot Gold is trading $5.15 higher at $1,127.00. Earlier today the Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage application rose 0.5% in the first week of March, but it remains down 12.5% from last year. Key Events Today: 10:00 ? Wholesale Trade Inventories...(read more)
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Explaining The MBS Settlement Process |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 10yr Notes progressively improved into the PM , ending 5 ticks better on the day with a yield of 3.70. MBS fought off much of the AM weakness in tsy's, and rallied just as well into the PM, reaching 101-15 at 4pm. But then we ended 4 ticks down on the day at 101-01! WHAT?!?!? So you're tellin' me MBS effectively erased all gains from the past two days?! Not exactly... I'll let AQ explain... -------------------------------------------- If you haven't read the following description of the agency MBS settlement process...please don't skip over it as it may save you from having to change your pants when next month's settlement rolls around. If you have read it...go over it one more time just to make sure the underlying logic is clear. The March FN 4.5 MBS coupon has...(read more)
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Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Outperforming Overall Bank Holdings |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Commercial and multifamily mortgages continue to have the lowest rates of charge-offs of any loan types at banks and thrifts and perform better than the overall loan portfolios at those institutions according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In response to what it referred to as a great deal of discussion and conjecture about those loans in recent months, MBA updated an earlier " DataNote " analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage data from the 4th quarter of 2008 with data from the same period in 2009. The report states that 56 percent of the assets held by banks and thrifts at the end of 2009 consisted of loans and leases, a category that includes 1-4 family mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards and other consumer loans, commercial mortgages, multifamily mortgages...(read more)
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HUD Enforcing Job Creation Requirements for State and Local Governments |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has released the results of the first stage of its increased oversight and enforcement of job creation requirements under Section 3 of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968. In a press release on Monday HUD said that more than 3,100 state and local government agencies that receive HUD funds have responded to its campaign to expand hiring and contracting opportunities for low-income persons and three out of four of HUD-funded state and local agencies had submitted their annual reports. HUD said that this was the largest response since HUD made such reporting mandatory. Under Section 3, state and local governments that receive funding from HUD in excess of $200,000 for activities involving housing construction, demolition, rehabilitation...(read more)
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MBS AFTERNOON: Potential Reprices For The Better |
Posted To: MBS Commentary MBS Off To The Races with 4.5's up 8 ticks to 101-15! 10yr up 5 ticks on the day dropping yield to 3.70 (through post auction resistance) Reprices for the better = highly likely From the Ninja: Mortgages are still on hold as today’s 3yr note auction held few surprises-everyone loves the shorter end of the curve; don’t you? $40 billion notes maturing in 2013 is quite commonplace and the sheer size of the issue is no longer an emotional and or logistical challenge to anyone directly (or indirectly, on the bid) involved. No real change to the way we do and or perceive business here in MBS secondary trading land. The market is better into lower and or range-bound rates, like today, and not as excited should the treasury market break out to the upside to prices (and lower interest...(read more)
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Risk Weighted Returns; Warehouse Lending Credit Manager Needed; Subprime Analysts Lost; Bank News |
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report We commented last week how a lot of people didn’t know what HSBC stood for... If you go back to when they bought a bank in Buffalo, New York to established themselves in the U.S. The joke was that HSBC stood for "Holy ____, Buffalo's Cold.” City National Bank (Los Angeles) was in the news for paying off all its TARP money last week, but the real story is how they became L.A.’s prestige bank in the first place. Frank Sinatra’s son was kidnapped on a Friday in 1963, and the singer called up Bank of America, Security Pacific and a few other big banks asking for $240,000 to pay the ransom money. The big banks told him to come in Monday morning and fill out a loan application. When he called City National, Chairman Bram Goldsmith told him “Come down to the...(read more)
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MBS LUNCH: 3 Year Note Auction Results And Reaction |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Immediately following the 3yr Treasury Note auction, treasuries weakened while MBS held steady. Since then, MBS have lost a few ticks, but the 4.5 remains positive on the day, up 1 tick at 101-07. The 10yr note is also up a tick leaving the yield just under 3.72. The 10yr's post auction selling turned the corner very much in line with yesterday's high yields suggesting a shift of guidance to tomorrow's auction. . MBS is building a case for support just over 101-06, but as volume remains fairly light, again, the emphasis is even more squarely on tomorrow's auction than it already was. Until/Unless 101-06 breaks down in a significant way, the chances of reprices for the worse remain limited to "knee-jerk only," but we're not seeing justification for that. In 10yr...(read more)
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MBS MORNING: Fed President Reminds About Labor Market Weakness |
Posted To: MBS Commentary I am kinda bummed no one laughed at my Kathy Ireland reference in MBS OPEN . Her dress was so tight you could see her liver processing the booze (that's a rumor). I suppose I could have poked fun at Sarah Jessica Parker's "Queen of the Nile" get-up. Ugh. You guys are killing me. Is this one of those "you had to be there" jokes? I know I am setting myself up to be mocked because I watched the Oscars...but come on, there is humor in everything we do. (Like I said, I lost control of the remote. Other men: don't pretend you didn't watch. You know what I am talking about here!) Ok I am done pretending I am Perez Hilton. HAHA back to the markets. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a middle of the road on inflation non-FOMC voter, shared prepared remarks with...(read more)
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Empty Econ Calendar Helps Mortgage Rates Hold Steady. Auctions Biggest Reprice Threat |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch After last week’s rates roller coaster ride that forced multiple reprices for the better and the worse, yesterday was quite boring. Mortgage rates held steady as prices of mortgage backed securities never moved too far in either direction. With very little price volatility, lenders left rate sheets unchanged on the day near the best rates of 2010. There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. With no economic data hitting the news wires this morning, today’s trading action, like yesterday, has been slow. AQ recapped some events that happened overnight which have affected the flow of money in markets today. HERE it is if you are interested. The only event on the calendar with the ability to move mortgage rates is the first of three treasury auctions for the week...(read more)
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Second Mortgages in the Spotlight; Reverse Repurchase Primer; My Opinion on Mortgage Rates After the Fed; Provident Cuts Interest Only |
Posted To: Pipeline Press Often I start the commentary off saying something witty, but I couldn't think of anything clever so I thought I'd suggest you take a look at this video about, of all things, seat belts. It is making the rounds, and with good reason. The Federal Reserve has a little more than ten business days to complete their well-publicized purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Last week it bought $10 billion, breaking their 3-week streak of $11 billion. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are/were eligible assets for the program. Everyone knows that the end of the program is imminent. I am going to go out on a limb here, which is rare for me, and suggest that the consultants, market gurus, bloggers, paid services, etc., who firmly...(read more)
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MBS OPEN: Flight to Quality in Light Trading Volume |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. Happy Standardized Test Tuesday! My nephew has Maryland School Assessment tests today, we were pre-gaming this morning. I remember those days pretty well...mostly because they were so incredibly boring and slow. Also because the test's time slots subtracted from favored subjects such as recess and P.E. What I should really be saying is HAPPY FLIGHT TO QUALITY TUESDAY!!! While you were sleeping, a senior director at Fitch Ratings by the name of Paul Rawkins told folks at a conference in London that Portugal's "pedestrian approach is a concern for us". Notice I didn't mention anything about Greece??? Yeh. Thats because more than one EU country is facing some sort of ratings downgrade. Whether or not these concerns are truly legitimate or a target of trader...(read more)
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The Day Ahead: Stocks Dip on Sovereign Debt Fears Abroad. Treasuries Get Flight to Quality |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Equity futures are firmly lower this morning following a mixed session yesterday. The Dow looks to open 31 points lower at 10,507 while futures on the S&P 500 are off 4.25 points to 1,132.75. “The mood in global markets is towards risk aversion with no apparent trigger,” said Benjamin Reitzes from BMO. MND's Adam Quinones says weakness in stocks and the flight to quality into Treasuries is a factor of overnight news from Fitch Ratings that warned against a downgrade of the credit ratings of the United Kingdom, France, and Spain. Confirming that risk isn’t on the table this morning, WTI crude oil is down $1.25 to $80.62 per barrel, and Spot Gold is trading $6.32 lower at $1,117.23. As one would expect, the US dollar is stronger against a broad array of currencies. The...(read more)
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MBS CLOSE: Strong Vs. Treasuries, But Lackluster Day All Around |
Posted To: MBS Commentary No material change since 10:30AM MBS 4.5's unchanged on the day at 101-07 10yr note 4bps higher on the day to 3.72 Stocks were up, down, up, closed flat No data tomorrow either, then 3yr note auction at 1pm Fed Evans at 930am Big Picture: something's gotta change, or long, slow, grind continues. I wanted to show you the same chart from the Afternoon notes, now updated for the past few hours for the sake of comparison, but I had to send it off to whatever company that is that prints those little activities on my kid's dinner menu where he's supposed to find the differences between two pictures. They heard about those two MBS charts and were thrilled at the possibility of just putting out one puzzle this year that would keep everyone guessing as to whether or not there was even...(read more)
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MBA: Servicing Specialists Should Not be Required to Obtain SAFE Act Licensing |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), American Bankers Association (ABA), and the American Financial Services Association (AFSA) joined with 11 state and local mortgage lending groups on Friday to send a letter to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development expressing concerns about the way in which HUD is proposing to implement the 2008 SAFE Act. The SAFE Act (Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing), was passed in July 2008 as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act. It directs states to adopt licensing and registration requirements for loan originators that meet minimum standards established by the act in lieu of HUD establishing nationwide standards. It also encourages the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the American Association of Residential...(read more)
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GSEs: Long Term Rates Again Below 5 Percent |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Mortgage rates reversed course yet again during the week ended March 4 with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) once more falling below 5 percent. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent with an average of 0.7 point compared to an average rate of 5.05 percent with 0.7 point the previous week. The 15-year FRM averaged 4.33 percent, down from 4.40 percent the week before. Fees and points remain unchanged at 0.7 point. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) had an average rate of 4.11 percent, down from 4.16 percent during the week ended February 25. Fees and points also declined from 0.6 point to 0.5 point. The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM was the lone exception to the downward trend. The average rate for...(read more)
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MBS AFTERNOON: Extremely Quiet Day Winding Down |
Posted To: MBS Commentary ridiculously flat trading in MBS and Tsy's low volume, sparse data calendar, looking toward auctions Did we mention flat trading? You'll rarely see MBS and Treasuries trade this flat for this much of the day. From 10:45 on, MBS haven't moved more than 1 tick and tsy's not more than 1bp. Volume is light on both fronts with MBS just over half recent norms. Perhaps even more telling, a quick scan down Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie MBS from 4.0 to 6.0 shows every security in that range UNCHANGED on the day, except Ginnie 4's, currently up ONE tick. Yawn..... Stocks are pretty much unchanged across big 3 indexes as well. No further data today (not like there was any this AM), and biggest event tomorrow, apart from 3yr auction, looks to be fed-speak! Other than 10yr Auction, Wednesday...(read more)
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